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This resource explains the highly unlikely to succeed standard in the context of STEM calculus, including where it originally appears in regulation and legislation, how to interpret and implement it under AB 1705, and how it is quantified by researchers and other fields (for comparison).
Fast facts include:
- The highly unlikely to succeed standard appears in Title 5, AB 705, and AB 1705, but it is not clearly defined for STEM calculus implementation.
- To support colleges in operationalizing the standard, the California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office developed guidance saying a placement group may be considered highly unlikely to succeed if its STEM Calculus 1 throughput rate is 15% or lower.
- Using the AB 1705 validation template, a college may keep a transfer-level preparatory course only if students who directly enroll in STEM Calculus 1 complete within two years at a rate of 15% or less.
- This guidance was shaped by input from statewide constituent groups, including the Academic Senate for California Community Colleges.
- Research from The RP Group (June 2024) also found that across 115 local college analyses, no student group benefited more from preparatory coursework than from direct enrollment in STEM Calculus 1.
- The 15% threshold is more inclusive than traditional statistical definitions of highly unlikely used in other fields.
